Nigel Smith
The results of the 2025 UK local and Mayoral elections can now be evaluated in full. As reported on 3rd of May by Internationalist Standpoint (read here) they have been an acid test for the Labour government.
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Reform UK has come through as the biggest party in many of these elections, routinely overturning Labour and Conservative majorities. It was clear from the start and reported on this website previously that the large majority won by Labour at the last election represented a very weak social base and was more a rejection of the Conservative government than an endorsement of Labour’s ideas. In 2024, Labour was in fact voted for by only 20.1% of registered voters and the turnout, at below 60%, was the lowest since 1918 – a turnout negatively affected by soldiers being demobilised from the trenches in World War One. In 2024 the combined vote share for the Conservatives and Labour together was only 57.7% – the lowest ever.
Reform UK is a real threat to democratic rights. It is led by the Nigel Farage, whose face grins out at readers virtually every time they turn on their computer or look for a summary of the news. In spite of his “party” being affected by splits and division, this has little negative impact on electoral support. Indeed, as with Donald Trump, Farage and Reform UK exploit the understandable and undeniable anger of the UK electorate, who have lost faith in the establishment parties and are looking for change. Many Reform UK voters are ex-Conservative voters and many have racist and nationalistic- far-right sympathies, but many others are disillusioned with Labour and its abandonment of any pretence of representing the interests of the working class. Did the reformists in the Labour Party really believe that the austerity agenda so readily adopted in council chambers across the country and the aping of Reform UK policies on immigration would not turn its traditional support base away form Labour? It is also apparent that otherising Reform voters as racist, or stupid will not win them back to the party would have previously supported. They can see that Labour is now a more faithful servant of the establishment than the Conservatives where, because of the Conservative’s changes in direction and inconsistencies in policy. Labour is proving to be neo-liberal to the core and its rigour in applying neo-liberalism is not lost on those who would prefer a political model that at least gave the poor and ordinary workers some recognition. Starmer’s meritocratic ideology simply shows distain for most of the British people and celebrates only the “winners” – the oligarchs and entrepreneurs.
Farage’s “blame game”, pointing voters away from the more reactionary anti-worker parts of his doctrine and towards the mistakes made by others, presents as an anti-establishment position which many voters pick up on, seeing their vote as a protest against orthodoxy and the establishment. The fact that Farage is himself fiercely loyal to capitalism and its anti-worker ideas is disguised by his beer-swilling, hale-fellow-well-met persona.
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If we look in detail at the 2025 results, we can see that Reform won 31% of the vote, with the Conservative and Labour vote combined coming to only 38% – down from 57% in the 2024 election. It is true that it is hard to extrapolate a complete analysis based on these results which represent a fraction of council seats, but the trends are clear. According to MSN, Reform won 31% of votes with Labour on 20%, Conservatives 18%, Liberal Democrats 16% and the Greens on 7%. In the 2024 election Labour won 33.7% of the vote, so the fall in support for them is almost 14%, with the percentage support for the Conservatives down from 24% to 18%, a fall of 6%. This shows that although the Conservatives are losing voters, the Labour Party is losing them more than twice as quickly and these votes are being lost mostly to Reform UK. The support for the Liberal Democrats is up by 3% and support for the Greens unchanged. It might have been expected that the Greens would benefit from the decline in support for Labour but this is not the case. Reform UK has dominated the media and capitalised on years of anger and frustration engendered by austerity. The Greens seem to be seen as part of the same establishment machine and it was the case that when in power, they were prepared to adopt austerity policies as well. This was also true, of course for the Liberal Democrats who don’t appear to be picking up much support from disillusioned Labour or Tory voters.
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Where the left stood candidates, either under the banner of The Trades Unionists and Socialist Coalition various Communist Party groups or as independents, they attracted usually between 1% and 2% of the vote. Some candidates received better votes, but these were usually where independents stood in seats with high Muslim populations. In Preston, for example three council seats were won by left independents with an anti-war – anti austerity message. They were able to mobilise the Muslim vote in a progressive way but mobilising the rest of the working class around a unified progressive message is still a problem and an impossibility without a political party to orientate to. TUSC accepts that it is not that force and has never presented itself as such. It is an attempt to raise the issue of a new worker’s party through the unions and across the class, mobilising the resources of the unions and of workers to build something credible. Credibility has always been the issue with TUSC. Many voters will agree with the programme but feel that their vote is wasted because of the lack of any possibility of success. The elections in Doncaster are instructive in this regard. Andy Hiles stood both in the mayoral election and in one of the council wards at the same time. In the mayoral election he got 0.5% of the vote but in the council seat, received 16.9% of the vote. This shows support for his ideas at a council level but a lack of conviction that he could win in a bigger campaign. This was also complicated by the fact that Ros Jones for Labour is one of the more popular and left-facing Labour figures and was able to narrowly hold onto the Mayor’s job.
The Worker’s Party of Britain (WPB), with its confusing amalgam of left and reactionary ideas stood in only seven seats, down from 152 at the last election with levels of support similar to TUSC except in Rochdale, the seat George Galloway fought at the last election, where it received 17% of the vote. WPB is therefore in serious decline and cannot present itself as an alternative for the working class.
There were a handful of other left candidates who invariably received low votes.
In general, independent left candidates did slightly better than those running for TUSC, but running as independents is not a long-term solution to the national problem. There needs to be a coordinating party around which lefts and socialists can orientate. It needs to have a clear programme and an organisation that can accommodate differences, where they are not fundamental. It should not require a charismatic leader, but does need representatives who can speak well and win over an audience. There are those on the left who can do this, given a platform and they need to be identified and promote a positive and dynamic presence across the media and on-line as far as is possible.
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TUSC is looking to launch a petition to call for a new party of the working class from out of the trade unions. It is planning a national conference in the autumn. There are many leading trade unionists who would support such a plan but the big unions, and the main affiliates of the Labour Party are still not looking to wake up to the fact that Labour no longer represents their interests. The tops of the unions, with their comfortable jobs are more closely tied to the interests of the state than they appear to be to their own members. Paul Nowak, general secretary of the Trades Union Congress for example has made it clear that the TUC will be sticking with Labour. This situation could change however. The PCS (civil servants) is not affiliated to Labour and the NEU is approaching a struggle in the near future over pay. Most unions are not affiliated to Labour. There is pressure coming from below in various unions and the union high ups will do all they can to stifle debate. However, in the autumn there are a host of union conferences coming up and it is up to rank-and-file trade unionists to take motions to these events in order to recommend disaffiliation from Labour and to support the building of a political alternative to Labour. There are also leadership elections taking place in a variety of unions and left candidates need to act together in order to build a political alternative to Labour from inside the trade union movement.
The Campaign for a Mass Workers Party (CMWP) is planning a national rally on the 3th June. This is an attempt to bring together as many of the separate groups as possible in order to continue the discussion around the building of a political alternative. It is clear that there are those who have a background of differences in approach. The Socialist Worker’s Party walked away from TUSC for example but now seems to be looking at a political alternative to Labour with its, We Demand Change initiative. It is to be hoped that We Demand Change moves towards other groups and initiatives. TUSC has asked them to have discussions but not received a positive response as of yet. Previous differences need to be sidelined and a federal approach adopted.
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The continued growth in popularity of Reform UK is not automatic. Once in office, their reactionary politics will emerge and will be rejected by many. They will begin to be seen for what they are by increasing numbers of voters and a left alternative, if seen as more than just an activist group, could be placed to build out of this growing understanding. As UKIP imploded previously, then Reform UK could suffer set-backs if challenged. At the present time there is no challenge. Although the Green Party offers a more progressive platform the mistrust born out of its political past is hard to shift, especially amongst workers and many on the left. It is worth talking to Greens. How radical are they prepared to be? Are many of them prepared to become involved with an anti-capitalist party of the left? It is true that some on the left have moved towards them but would admit that the Green Party is not their natural home.
All of these indicators suggest a new party. Radical Greens, communists, socialists and anti-capitalists have many shared ideas. Socialists would advocate for a clearly socialist political vehicle. The name would be a matter for the future but once the ideas born out of socialism are shared, they will prove to be popular. During the Corbyn surge, it was the ideas that Corbyn was talking about that built the support for him, not Corbyn himself. It was the first time that many of those ideas had been heard by the majority of the population. We need to remind ourselves that Corbyn came close to winning the 2017 general election in spite of massive obstacles being put in the way. If the left can coordinate and get the backing of some unions and the money needed to build a profile, then the media and on-line vehicles could be utilised and the message spread. Without resources any initiative is going to be faced with difficulties. Revolutionary developments could lead to rapid transformations, but at the current time, in the UK, we need to build from where we are and not a hypothetical future. The correct approach therefore is to build a socialist party but also to build a broader movement across currents which will embody a solid kernel of socialist principles. This means that comrades in the Socialist Party for example will continue their work for its aims but also show commitment to the broader project – reaching out to the masses through a multi- facetted political initiative that draws together the best people and ideas from across the left.
