Ciaran Mulholland
In an election that has reversed the 2024 trend of outgoing government parties losing elections Fianna Fail (FF) and Fine Gael (FG), the traditional pro-capitalist parties in Ireland have scored a victory.
The outgoing coalition was comprised of FF, FG and the Green Party. Fianna Fail (FF) won 21.9%, Fine Gael (FG) 20.8% and the main opposition party Sinn Fein (SF) 19.0%. The “centre left” parties the Social Democrats won 4.8%, and the Labour Party 4.7%. A range of Independents gained 13.6%.The Green Party (GP) who formed part of the outgoing coalition government won 3.0% of the vote. The left alliance People Before Profit-Solidarity won 2.8%.
The allocation of the 174 seats was determined after multiple counts using the Single Transferable Vote (STV) method. FF secured 48 TDs (seats in the Dail or parliament) as the proportional representation system delivering 27% of the seats on a 22% vote. Sinn Féin has 39 TDs, Fine Gael 38, Independents 16, Labour 11, Social Democrats 11, PBP-Solidarity 3, Aontú 2, Independent Ireland 4, the Green Party 1 and the “100% Redress Party” (a party formed to fight for compensation for homeowners living in defective houses) has 1 seat.
With the total number of seats in the Dáil increased from 160 to 174, following a review by the Electoral Commission last year, any potential coalition will need at least 88 TDs. It is accepted that 95 or more is necessary to provide stability. It is now expected that FF and FG will form a new coalition, either with a number of independent TDs, or with Labour or the Social Democrats (Soc Dems). It is possible that the Labour Party and the Soc Dems will form a bloc before entering coalition negotiations and may include the sole Green Party TD in their deliberations.
Prior to the election, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael both ruled out entering government with Sinn Fein. FF leader Michael Martin, expected to be the next Taoiseach, set out his position with regards to potential coalition partners at the weekend: “…I think there are… a sufficiency of seats, it seems to me, that aligns with the core principles that I articulated at the outset of this campaign and throughout the campaign, around the pro-enterprise economy, around a positively pro-European position, a government that will strongly push for home ownership and around parties that are transparently democratic in how they conduct their affairs.”
Significant Setback for Sinn Fein Strategy
Sinn Fein suffered a significant fall in its share of the votes in the election. Its 19% of the first preference votes is a drop of 5.5% from in its share at the last general election. In February 2020 Sinn Fein outpolled both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, winning 24.5% of the first preference votes compared to 22.2% and 20.9% respectively. Sinn Fein won 37 seats, a seat behind Fianna Fail, who had 38 and two ahead of Fine Gael on 35.
Sinn Fein has more TDs in absolute number (as opposed to proportionate share of TDs), than last time, because the number of seats in the Dail has risen from 160 so the party won extra seats on a lower vote share. It is widely accepted that Sinn Fein ran too few candidates in 2020 and might have won 40 seats that year had it run more.
Over the last five years Sinn Fein has been ahead in the polls and had hoped that it would win so many seats in this election that it would be the largest party and would lead the next government. It began falling in the polls a year ago, however, and did worse than expected in local council and European elections earlier this year. After these setbacks and a series ofscandals over its handling of the departure of one of its press officers, Michael McMonagle, who was revealed to have been a sex offender, and the sudden resignation of the former Lord Mayor of Belfast and senator Niall Ó Donnghaile, who admitted sending inappropriate messages to two teenagers, it was on the defensive.
It has lost some votes to the republican party Aontu, which has a traditional Catholic view on social matters such as abortion, and which doubled its vote share to 3.9%. The party also lost some support for its perceived pro-immigrant stance to politicians such as those from a new movement called Independent Ireland, which wants tighter border controls, and which got 3.6% of the vote.
Despite these factors it was not hit as badly as feared in this election. Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald was quoted on the first day of the count expressing her determination to form a government of the left as she unconvincingly insisted her party’s performance in the general election had broken the state’s political mould.
Whilst the idea of a “left” government has been raised, it is completely excluded. Mary Lou McDonald has stated that she would be “very, very actively pursuing” the potential to form a government with other parties on the left of the political spectrum.
In this scenario SF would come together with the centre left Social Democrats, the Labour Party, the Green Party and the left grouping People Before Profit-Solidarity. The number of TDs allied to this bloc is insufficient to form a government.
Sinn Fein’s long-term strategy is to form part of governments north and south, and to use this base to push for a referendum on a united Ireland. Just months ago, it would have expected to be the largest party in the Dail and Stormont, and if it had succeeded and held both the Taoiseach position in the South and the First Minister position in the north, it would have been in a strong position to argue for a border poll. Instead, it is now consigned to opposition for another five-year period, unless the government collapses sooner.
Sinn Fein will “spin” this result, and has already started to do so, but there is no way of describing it, except as a major setback. As the major party of opposition, it was in prime position going into the election, given the difficulties the outgoing government has faced.
Sinn Feins own internal contradictions have caused it problems, but its primary problem has been its inability to sufficiently differentiate itself from the pro-capitalist parties, as essentially it is also a pro-capitalist party. Its positions on housing and health were more radical, but only in limited ways. Sinn Fein now have much to think about, and the position of its leader must be in doubt, perhaps not immediately, but in the medium term.
Left Gains and Losses
Left parties and candidates had mixed results. People Before Profit-Solidarity went into the election with five seats but has emerged with only three. Richard Boyd Barrett and Paul Murphy will be joined in the Dail by Ruth Coppinger of the Socialist Party, all three in Dublin area seats.
It lost seats in Dublin South Central, Dublin Mid-West, and Cork North Central, where Socialist Party member Mick Barry lost out by a narrow margin. Joan Collins of Right to Change lost her seat, also in Dublin South Central. High profile ex-Socialist Party member Clare Daly, who lost her MEP seat in June, failed to make a breakthrough in Dublin Central, where she won only 4% of the vote. Seamus Healey, a long-time left TD, who lost his seat at the last election, was returned in Tipperary.
Why Was the Coalition Returned?
Class issues dominated the campaign. Housing and homelessness were the biggest issue in the election according to exit polling. Some 28% of the people who were surveyed immediately after they voted said it was the key issue for them. It was followed by cost of living at 19%, health at 17%, economic stability at 9% and immigration at only 6% (poll was carried out for RTÉ, the Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin by Ipsos). Other issues considered most important by respondents included climate change at 4%, crime at 2%, local transport and roads at 2%, and childcare at 2%. Younger respondents ranked housing/homelessness and cost of living as more important issues than older people.
All the parties competed in making promises on the key issues, but few voters were convinced. Sinn Fein were for a long time seen as the alternative government, but it could project an image which was sufficiently differentiated from FG and FF on housing and health and lost ground over the last year. The idea of a left government became less, not more credible, over the last five years.
More than one in three people who took part in the exit polls said their standard of living had worsened over the past year, 13% said it had improved, 52% said it had remained the same and 1% had no response. It is likely that the government parties won the support of the proportion of the population that feels it is doing reasonably well and favours “stability”. The psychological boost provided by the 14-billion-euro Apple windfall tax gave FF and FG a further boost. The Green Party took the hits, losing 11 of 12 seats in this election, whereas FF and FG emerged unscathed.
There is evidence of widespread disillusionment in the system-the national turnout was down to 59.7%, the lowest since 1923, and the only other time the number was below 60%. The new government won only 45-50% support, based on this 60% turnout, but it was enough for victory. It is not enough to ensure stability in the times ahead. A new coalition, based again on the limits imposed by the capitalist system will not deliver affordable housing or accessible health care. Storms lie ahead.
Further election analysis including the implications for Sinn Fein, the significance of left vote and results, and discussions around coalition formation will be published in a second article.
